TINUBU’S GRAND CHESSBOARD: THE RUTHLESS CALCULATIONS FOR 2027 ~ Asiegbu Agwu Nkpa

ONN Earth 05.04.2025

2027: The Unfolding Battle for Nigeria’s Future

The 2027 election is already being shaped by political realignments, economic realities, and regional power shifts. But Tinubu is not as invincible as he thinks.

1. The Northern Revolt: A Silent Uprising

Tinubu’s economic destruction has alienated the Northern masses, who now see him as the architect of their suffering and poverty.

The North was patient with Buhari’s failures, believing he was their own. But they do not see Tinubu as their own.

El-Rufai’s SDP strategy is a potential time bomb. The former Kaduna governor is a political genius with a history of organizing power blocs.

Kashim Shettima’s recent frustrations signal a deeper Northern discontent that could translate into a full-blown rebellion against Tinubu in 2027.

The APC brand is beyond redemption in the North, while PDP is a lifeless corpse. But if El-Rufai orchestrates a new broad based and serious coalition, Tinubu will face a formidable opponent from the very region that propelled him into power.

2. The Igbo Factor: A Political Wildcard

The Southeast is not playing Tinubu’s game. Unlike in the past, where politicians like Orji Uzor Kalu and Rochas Okorocha could be used as political middlemen, the dynamics have changed:

Soludo and Umahi are isolated figures, incapable of influencing Igbo voters.

Governor Alex Otti is focusing on governance, not national politics – which, by the way, is the most responsible politics deserving for the Southeast circumstance in the current Nigerian reality.

The Igbo masses remain overwhelmingly loyal to Nnamdi Kanu and Peter Obi.

Even if by another acrobatics the Southeast is deprived the next president in 2027, it will play a crucial role in deciding who wins. And Tinubu is not their choice.

3. The South-South: The Ultimate Battleground*

If there is any region Tinubu must win, it is the South-South. And that is why Rivers State is at war.

Wike believes he owns the South-South, but his grip is slipping.

Tinubu needs Rivers to remain unstable, so he can manipulate the electoral process.

The people of the South-South are beginning to see through the political deception, realizing that Wike is merely a pawn for a larger power grab.

The question is: Will the South-South resist, or will it be bought over once again?

The Real Enemy: The Nigerian People’s Apathy

For all of Tinubu’s calculations, his greatest weapon is not Wike, the judiciary, or the economy – it is the people’s own indifference.

If Nigerians remain passive, Tinubu will win.

If Nigerians wait until 2027, the election will be rigged beyond reversal.

If Nigerians expect the judiciary to save their democracy, they will be disappointed.

The only way to stop the creeping autocracy is for Nigerians to act now:

Demand electoral reforms immediately, not after the rigging has taken place.

Resist suppression of free speech and opposition voices – a silenced people can never change their government.

Engage in active political participation – not just through voting, but through sustained civic action.

This is not just about Tinubu – it is about the survival of Nigerian democracy.

Conclusion: A Dangerous Game with Uncertain Outcomes

Tinubu is not a fool – he is a grandmaster of political strategy. But his ultimate goal remains unknown. Whatever it is, it is bound to be insidious.

Yet, his greatest mistake may be his deceptive, nepotistic, exclusivist, and arrogant strategy.

He is alienating the North.

He is underestimating the Igbo factor.

He is gambling with the South-South.

He is pushing Nigerians to a breaking point.

This is why ordinary Nigerians must demand accountability now. They cannot afford to wait until 2027, when the game will already be rigged beyond reversal.

If Nigerians fail to resist now, Tinubu’s political experiment will succeed – and democracy, as we know it, will be gone.

~Asiegbu Agwu Nkpa